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Oct 2

PCS-UQ: Uncertainty Quantification via the Predictability-Computability-Stability Framework

As machine learning (ML) enters high-stakes domains, trustworthy uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for safety. In this paper we introduce PCS-UQ, a framework based on the Predictability, Computability, and Stability (PCS) principles for veridical data science. Starting with a candidate set of models or algorithms, PCS-UQ integrates a rigorous prediction-check to screen out unsuitable models in the set and utilizes bootstrap samples, in order to capture both inter-sample variability and algorithmic instability for the prediction-checked algorithms. We then introduce a novel multiplicative calibration scheme to enhance local adaptivity, which basically corresponds to a new score in conformal prediction. Moreover, we produce a compilation of 17 real-world regression datasets with manually-constructed subgroups. On this benchmark, PCS-UQ maintains the target coverage while outperforming or matching conformal methods equipped with oracle-selected algorithms in interval width. PCS-UQ achieves consistent subgroup coverage, outperforming these oracle-selected conformal methods. Notably, PCS-UQ stands out in achieving both competitive interval widths and consistent subgroup coverage.Across 6 classification datasets, PCS-UQ reduces prediction set sizes by 20\%. To scale the framework for deep learning, we propose computationally efficient variants that bypass expensive retraining. On three computer vision benchmarks, these variants reduce prediction set sizes by 20\% over conformal baselines. Finally, we provide theoretical proof that a modified PCS-UQ algorithm preserves valid coverage under exchangeability as a form of split conformal inference.

  • 6 authors
·
Jun 9

Understanding Certified Training with Interval Bound Propagation

As robustness verification methods are becoming more precise, training certifiably robust neural networks is becoming ever more relevant. To this end, certified training methods compute and then optimize an upper bound on the worst-case loss over a robustness specification. Curiously, training methods based on the imprecise interval bound propagation (IBP) consistently outperform those leveraging more precise bounding methods. Still, we lack an understanding of the mechanisms making IBP so successful. In this work, we thoroughly investigate these mechanisms by leveraging a novel metric measuring the tightness of IBP bounds. We first show theoretically that, for deep linear models, tightness decreases with width and depth at initialization, but improves with IBP training, given sufficient network width. We, then, derive sufficient and necessary conditions on weight matrices for IBP bounds to become exact and demonstrate that these impose strong regularization, explaining the empirically observed trade-off between robustness and accuracy in certified training. Our extensive experimental evaluation validates our theoretical predictions for ReLU networks, including that wider networks improve performance, yielding state-of-the-art results. Interestingly, we observe that while all IBP-based training methods lead to high tightness, this is neither sufficient nor necessary to achieve high certifiable robustness. This hints at the existence of new training methods that do not induce the strong regularization required for tight IBP bounds, leading to improved robustness and standard accuracy.

  • 4 authors
·
Jun 17, 2023

Amortized Opacity Marginalization Improves C/O Interval Calibration for Brown-Dwarf Retrievals

Molecular line lists disagree at a level that measurably shifts retrieved C/O, so retrievals conditioned on a single list omit a dominant systematic from their error bars. Classical marginalization re-runs a full retrieval under K opacity realizations per object. We move that cost into simulation: while generating the training set we randomize opacities (smooth multiplicative Fourier fields in logν plus a discrete line-list mixture, under a deliberately broad prior informed by measured inter-list differences), so a neural posterior estimator learns an already-marginalized posterior. Conceptually, this is the amortized analogue of repeating a conventional retrieval under many plausible opacity realizations and averaging the resulting posteriors. On perturbed held-out spectra (n=2048) a standard NPE covers nominal 90% C/O intervals 43.3% of the time against 82.4% for a compute-matched marginalized network; three-seed control ensembles reach 93.2% on clean data but 61.4% under perturbation, against 89.4% marginalized, isolating the deficit as opacity-induced (TARP joint expected-coverage deviation 0.005 against 0.035). An axis ablation traces the gain to the continuous field (45.4% for the discrete swaps alone, 79.3% for the field alone). Applying the 105 real bad-pixel masks with median filling then collapsed the ensemble's C/O coverage from 0.901 to 0.479; retraining on the same mask distribution and pooling three such seeds returns a nominal 0.905 C/O and 0.891 overall under the full deployment path, still in simulation (n=1024, same 105 masks), at 0.21 to 0.31 of the prior width. On 105 JWST/G395H spectral products of 13 late-T/Y dwarfs, single marginalized networks bracket the Hood et al. (2024) T8 benchmark C/O where the control excludes it, a consistency check rather than a validation, at 1.6-2.6x wider intervals.

  • 1 authors
·
Aug 31

Not Just What, But When: Integrating Irregular Intervals to LLM for Sequential Recommendation

Time intervals between purchasing items are a crucial factor in sequential recommendation tasks, whereas existing approaches focus on item sequences and often overlook by assuming the intervals between items are static. However, dynamic intervals serve as a dimension that describes user profiling on not only the history within a user but also different users with the same item history. In this work, we propose IntervalLLM, a novel framework that integrates interval information into LLM and incorporates the novel interval-infused attention to jointly consider information of items and intervals. Furthermore, unlike prior studies that address the cold-start scenario only from the perspectives of users and items, we introduce a new viewpoint: the interval perspective to serve as an additional metric for evaluating recommendation methods on the warm and cold scenarios. Extensive experiments on 3 benchmarks with both traditional- and LLM-based baselines demonstrate that our IntervalLLM achieves not only 4.4% improvements in average but also the best-performing warm and cold scenarios across all users, items, and the proposed interval perspectives. In addition, we observe that the cold scenario from the interval perspective experiences the most significant performance drop among all recommendation methods. This finding underscores the necessity of further research on interval-based cold challenges and our integration of interval information in the realm of sequential recommendation tasks. Our code is available here: https://github.com/sony/ds-research-code/tree/master/recsys25-IntervalLLM.

Sony Sony
·
Jul 30, 2025

HyperInterval: Hypernetwork approach to training weight interval regions in continual learning

Recently, a new Continual Learning (CL) paradigm was presented to control catastrophic forgetting, called Interval Continual Learning (InterContiNet), which relies on enforcing interval constraints on the neural network parameter space. Unfortunately, InterContiNet training is challenging due to the high dimensionality of the weight space, making intervals difficult to manage. To address this issue, we introduce HyperInterval, a technique that employs interval arithmetic within the embedding space and utilizes a hypernetwork to map these intervals to the target network parameter space. We train interval embeddings for consecutive tasks and train a hypernetwork to transform these embeddings into weights of the target network. An embedding for a given task is trained along with the hypernetwork, preserving the response of the target network for the previous task embeddings. Interval arithmetic works with a more manageable, lower-dimensional embedding space rather than directly preparing intervals in a high-dimensional weight space. Our model allows faster and more efficient training. Furthermore, HyperInterval maintains the guarantee of not forgetting. At the end of training, we can choose one universal embedding to produce a single network dedicated to all tasks. In such a framework, hypernetwork is used only for training and can be seen as a meta-trainer. HyperInterval obtains significantly better results than InterContiNet and gives SOTA results on several benchmarks.

  • 6 authors
·
May 24, 2024

The Slepian model based independent interval approximation of persistency and zero-level exceedance distributions

In physics and engineering literature, the distribution of the excursion-above-zero time distribution (exceedance distribution) for a stationary Gaussian process has been approximated by a stationary switching process with independently distributed switching times. The approach matched the covariance of the clipped Gaussian process with the one for the stationary switching process and the distribution of the latter was used as the so-called independent interval approximation (IIA). The approach successfully assessed the persistency exponent for many physically important processes but left an unanswered question when such an approach leads to a mathematically meaningful and proper exceedance distribution. Here we address this question by proposing an alternative matching of the expected values of the clipped Slepian process and the corresponding switched process initiated at the origin. The method has allowed resolving the mathematical correctness of the matching method for a large subclass of the Gaussian processes with monotonic covariance, for which we provide a sufficient condition for the validity of the IIA. Within this class, the IIA produces a valid distribution for the excursion time and is represented in an explicit stochastic form that connects directly to the covariance of the underlying Gaussian process. We compare the excursion level distributions as well as the corresponding persistency exponents obtained through the IIA method with numerically computed exact distributions, and the simulated distribution for several important Gaussian models. We also argue that for stationary Gaussian processes with a non-monotonic covariance, the IIA fails and should not be used.

  • 2 authors
·
Jan 3, 2024

Unified Dominance Graph for Interval-Predicate Approximate Nearest Neighbor Search

Approximate Nearest Neighbor Search (ANNS) is a core primitive for unstructured data retrieval. Real-world applications--such as temporal databases, financial data analysis, and retrieval-augmented generation--often require hybrid queries whose valid objects are constrained by continuous interval attributes, such as lifespans or price ranges. We study Interval-Predicate ANNS (IPANNS), where validity is determined by a predicate between an object interval and a query interval. Existing range-filtering ANNS (RFANNS) methods are designed for single-dimensional scalar filters, but interval predicates such as containment and overlap rely on two coupled endpoint constraints. Treating endpoints as independent scalar attributes can incur large intersection overhead, while containment-specific methods lack a generalized indexing abstraction. In this paper, we propose the Unified Dominance Graph (UDG), a graph-indexing framework for the closed two-bound conjunctive fragment of IPANNS. For a chosen interval predicate, UDG maps object and query endpoints into a normalized two-dimensional dominance space and builds a dominance-labeled graph over the transformed coordinates. Containment, overlap, and other supported endpoint-bound predicates therefore reuse the same construction and search algorithms after semantic mapping, while each UDG instance remains tied to its selected predicate. UDG compresses query-state-specific proximity graphs into one compact index. To improve graph search under restrictive interval filters, we add validity-preserving patch edges that provide routing choices when few objects remain valid. Extensive evaluations on standard benchmarks and real-world datasets show that UDG achieves stable query performance across multiple interval relations and workloads, significantly outperforming existing hybrid search baselines while maintaining low indexing overhead.

  • 6 authors
·
Jun 22

KVEraser: Learning to Steer KV Cache for Efficient Localized Context Erasing

Post-hoc context erasing over the KV cache is challenging because a local edit has a global consequence: once a span has been processed, its influence propagates into the cached states of all subsequent tokens. This issue arises naturally in long-context LLM applications, where stale retrieved facts, incorrect tool observations, retracted user preferences, or harmful prompt injections may be identified only after prefill. Exact erasing must then recompute all tokens after the deleted span, making its computational cost depend on suffix length rather than erased-span length. We introduce KVEraser, a learned KV-cache editing method for efficient localized context erasing. Given a processed context and a span to remove, KVEraser replaces only the KV states of the erased interval with learned steering states while reusing the remaining cache unchanged. To learn a transferable erasing mechanism, we build a two-stage training pipeline: generic span-neighbor pre-training teaches the eraser to suppress the influence of the erased span, while task-specific fine-tuning adapts this capability to downstream scenarios. Experiments show that KVEraser nearly matches full recomputation in post-erasure performance on in-domain tasks across 1K--32K context lengths, while its latency increases by only 24% compared with a 17.6x increase for full recomputation. KVEraser also generalizes to unseen long-document QA tasks with harmful factual distractors, achieving the best performance among approximate baselines with a 3--4x speedup over full recomputation.

  • 8 authors
·
Jun 14

SliceBridge: context-consistent repair of corrupted slice intervals in T1-weighted MRI

Structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) images are sometimes corrupted over a contiguous set of slices, where acquisition, motion, hardware, or reconstruction effects leave a single slice or short interval inconsistent with its neighbors while the rest of the image remains usable. Such localized corruption can bias downstream morphometric analysis, yet discarding or reacquiring an otherwise usable image is costly. We formulate this as an image restoration problem: given the location of the affected interval, reconstruct those slices from the surrounding anatomical and imaging context. We propose SliceBridge, a framework for restoring corrupted slice intervals in T1-weighted MRI using rectified flow matching conditioned on the surrounding intact slices and their relative slice positions. Through-plane consistency is encouraged by coupling the slices within the interval through interval-correlated initial noise, a shared flow time, and synchronized sampling. The restored interval is then inserted back, leaving all other slices unchanged. We trained and validated the model on 9,877 T1-weighted brain MRI volumes from four datasets and evaluated it on 581 external subjects using clean interval withholding and controlled corruptions. Compared with a matched model that reconstructed target slices independently, SliceBridge reduced error in slice-to-slice changes within repaired intervals by 32.9%-41.3% across interval lengths and achieved higher SSIM at every interval length. In controlled-corruption cases, SliceBridge reduced the median error in regional brain volume estimates produced by a downstream segmentation model from 1.95% in corrupted volumes to 1.05%.

QuantSightBench: Evaluating LLM Quantitative Forecasting with Prediction Intervals

Forecasting has become a natural benchmark for reasoning under uncertainty. Yet existing evaluations of large language models remain limited to judgmental tasks in simple formats, such as binary or multiple-choice questions. In practice, however, forecasting spans a far broader scope. Across domains such as economics, public health, and social demographics, decisions hinge on numerical estimates over continuous quantities, a capability that current benchmarks do not capture. Evaluating such estimates requires a format that makes uncertainty explicit and testable. We propose prediction intervals as a natural and rigorous interface for this purpose. They demand scale awareness, internal consistency across confidence levels, and calibration over a continuum of outcomes, making them a more suitable evaluation format than point estimates for numerical forecasting. To assess this capability, we introduce a new benchmark QuantSightBench, and evaluate frontier models under multiple settings, assessing both empirical coverage and interval sharpness. Our results show that none of the 11 evaluated frontier and open-weight models achieves the 90\% coverage target, with the top performers Gemini 3.1 Pro (79.1\%), Grok 4 (76.4\%), and GPT-5.4 (75.3\%) all falling at least 10 percentage points short. Calibration degrades sharply at extreme magnitudes, revealing systematic overconfidence across all evaluated models.

  • 2 authors
·
Apr 16